2023: "An Example of Combining Expert Judgment and Small Area Projection Methods: Forecasting for Water District Needs" Spatial Demography (2023) 11:8, with Dr. David Swanson, et al. 

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The project demonstrates the effective development of expert applied demography, G.I.S and collaboration with local subject matter experts to develop refined population projections, where accuracy is critical.

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2023: "Forensic Demography: An Overlooked Area of Practice among Applied Demographers" Review of Economics and Finance with Dr. David Swanson and Dr. Jeff Tayman. January 2023.

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The term “forensic economics” is widely recognized within civil legal circles in the United States, and is usually understood to involve the calculation of damages from personal injury, death, and employment loss. Forensic demography is a term that is not widely recognized because it has only been used in a handful of civil rights and related cases. In this paper, we argue that applied demographers have skills that apply to civil cases involving the calculation of damages from personal injury, death, and employment loss.

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2021 “The Effect of the Differential Privacy Disclosure Avoidance System Proposed by the Census Bureau on 2020 Census Products: Four Case Studies of Census Blocks in Alaska” PAA Affairs, with Dr. David Swanson and Mr. Richard Sewell, Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities). March 2021.

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The Census Bureau has introduced a new Disclosure Avoidance System known as Differential Privacy (DP) for its 2020 census data products. DP provides a probabilistic formal quantification that measures how much privacy is afforded by a query. Ruggles et al. argue that DP goes far beyond precedent and exceeds what is necessary to keep data safe under census law. They contend further that, because DP focuses on concealing individual characteristics instead of respondent identities, it is a blunt and inefficient instrument for disclosure control. As they point out, the core metric of DP does not measure the risk of identity disclosure, so it cannot assess disclosure risk as defined under census law, making it untenable for optimizing the privacy/usability trade-off. Our purpose in this paper is to assess the errors introduced by (DP) on census block data in Alaska in the form of four case studies.

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2020 “Constructing Life Tables from the Kaiser Permanente Smoking Study and Applying the Results to the Population of the United States.” (2020)  pp.115-152 in B. Jivetti and M. N. Hoque (eds.). Population Change and Public Policy. Springer B.V. Press. with Dr. David Swanson and Dr. Simeon Chow.

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Here we construct life tables from cohort mortality data widely employed in efforts to examine smoking and health, which in this case is the Kaiser Permanente Smoking Study. The mortality data in this study have been used in terms of relative mortality and risk rates in regard to smoking behaviors. However, they have never beforebeen used to generate life tables. After describing life tables in general, we describe the KP smoking study data, then discuss the methods used to generate the life tables from them. Following these descriptions and discussion, we show the life tables developed from the KP smoking study. 

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